TMc: Book Review ... Predicting the Next President | Eastern North Carolina Now

    The 13 Keys to the White House

    The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.

    Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

    Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

    Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

    Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

    Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

    Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

    Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

    Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

    Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

    Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

    Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

    Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

    Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

    Conclusion: Mr. Lichtman has proven correct in numerous elections and is a proven expert. The 227 pages give follow up election histories to sharpen skills of civics and political science students.

    I will call my advisors about adapting these factors to local contests.
Go Back

Leave a Guest Comment

Your Name or Alias
Your Email Address ( your email address will not be published)
Enter Your Comment ( no code or urls allowed, text only please )


( October 22nd, 2018 @ 11:51 pm )
It will never happen, and if it does, the Republic is doomed.
( October 7th, 2018 @ 10:38 am )
Allan L. predicts Popular Vote, not Electoral. There have been five United States presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote including the 1824 election, which was the first U.S. presidential election where the popular vote was recorded.
( October 7th, 2018 @ 7:57 am )
Good point: Every two years, the election of all House of Representatives is an indication on how the voters think things are going. Of course that presupposes that the voters are informed and alive.
( October 7th, 2018 @ 7:08 am )
First Key: Mid-term election in Nov. is an important factor.

The Avett Brothers Headline Concert to Benefit Hurricane Florence Relief Morning Muse, Public Vignettes, Visiting Writers, Today's Literature, The Arts What's on the Agenda to Worry about Today?


Latest The Arts

Legendary comedian Dana Carvey announced on Thursday that his oldest son Dex had died of an accidental drug overdose. Dex was 32 years old.
Jason Alexander admitted he doesn’t “know anything about” a reboot of the hit NBC show “Seinfeld” and suggested that they must not need his character George Costanza.
What began as a pleasant weekend evening in the Belnap household quickly soured due to husband Lance's relational ineptitude. Trisha had grown frustrated that he did not realize she wanted him to be quiet and also talk to her and also leave her alone and also come and talk to her.
As he joined striking members of the United Auto Workers union on the picket line, President Joe Biden expressed his strong support for their efforts, insisting automakers provide all factory employees with 300 days of annual vacation just like he receives.
As the migrant crisis along the southern U.S. border continued to intensify, a new threat emerged, leading the Biden administration to warn the populace of the presence of a dangerous African immigrant sighted at the border.
After 118 days, the SAG-AFTRA actors strike is finally over, and Hollywood can get back to work.
British television host John Oliver, who became an American citizen in 2019, ripped America for supporting Israel, prompting actor-comedian Jon Lovitz to blast him with some facts and ask God to bless America for its support of the Jewish state.
Arnold Schwarzenegger received the Award of Courage from the Holocaust Museum in Los Angeles and called on people to “confront” anti-Semitism following the Hamas terrorist attack in Israel that resulted in the deaths of more than 1,400 people.
“Lord of the Rings” filmmaker Peter Jackson said he believes it’s possible to create more Beatles music in the future with the use of AI (artificial intelligence) technology.


Back to Top