Conservatives open poll lead for early Canadian election | Beaufort County Now | Trudeau losing steam

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Canada's Conservative Party had pulled ahead of the governing Liberals for the first time in polls for Canada's September 20 early parliamentary election.  The election was called two years early by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose party has run a minority government since losing seats in the last election, in the hopes of gaining a majority.  He also apparently hoped that virus restrictions would make campaigning difficult for opponents.  

The poll for Canadian broadcaster CTV gave the Conservative Party 33.3% and the Liberals 30.8%, with the remainder going to minor parties or undecided. This is a gain in support by Conservatives and a decline in support for the Liberals since the last poll. The poll also showed rising personal approval scores for Conservative leader Erin O'Toole and falling personal approval scores for Trudeau.

The significant minor parties running are the Quebec separatists, the leftist New Democrats, and the western separatists of the new Maverick Party which calls for either more autonomy or outright independence (Wexit) for Canada's four western provinces.

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( September 4th, 2021 @ 8:01 am )
Another poll is showing Conservatives leading the Liberals in Canada's early election. Translated into seats in parliament, they project a Liberal loss of 30 seats and a Conservative gain of 22. This would leave the Conservatives as the largest party but 19 seats short of a majority.
( August 31st, 2021 @ 6:06 pm )
Based on current polling, the Canadian election is likely to produce a dynamic that shifts power from the central government to the provincial governments. If the numbers in this poll continue through election day, it will produce a parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party, but without a majority. If the trend line continues, then Conservatives may have a small majority. They are going to need allies, and the place to get them are the separatist parties, both of which have fortunately mellowed and now prefer staying in Canada but with a lot of national power devolved down to the provinces. The current generation of Quebec nationalist leaders no longer push independence but instead more provincial autonomy within Canada, and they have moved to the right on quite a few issues, talking like conservatives on taxes, spending, and immigration, as well as some social issues. Moreover, their main rivals within Quebec just happen to be the Liberals. At the same time the Wexit (western exit) party has mellowed in becoming the Maverick Party, with their first choice being the same as the Quebecois, greater provincial autonomy within Canada. The Maverick Party draws from the same voter base as the Conservatives which makes things a bit more tricky. However, the Conservative Prime Minister of Alberta, the Maverick Party's strongest turf, has been an extremely outspoken proponent of much greater provincial autonomy since the very early days of the Wexit movement, so there is a good policy fit between the parties. A Conservative government could make important friends and allies by championing transfer of power from the federal to the provincial level.

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