The vote is being counted in the French parliamentary election being held today, and projections show Macron's allies failing to hold their majority in parliament. Projections show Macron's allies getting 200 to 250 seats, far short of the 289 needed for a majority.
French parliamentary elections are held in two rounds. If no candidate gets a majority in the first round, which happens in most seats, the top two move on to a second round, which is what occurred today. There voters who do not care for the top two in their district may stay home or they may make what some would see as odd choices. For example, polling showed that many voters of the populist / nationalist National Rally would vote against globalist Macron candidates even if it meant voting for the far left.
The left had an advantage this election because they worked out a united front across several parties. Calls from the populist / nationalist anti-immigration Reconquest Party for parties of the right to do this fell on deaf ears.
The tactic of most of the other parties ganging up on Marine LePen's National Rally seemed to have fallen apart. That tactic held the National Rally to eight seats in the last election even though they were one of the largest parties. Projections for this election show the National Rally winning at least 80 seats.
UPDATE: Seats won by four major parties or alliances: Macron allies: 245 (a loss of 102 seats), left alliance, 131 (gain of 73); National Rally (populist / nationalist right) 89 seats (gain of 82); Les Republicains (traditional center-right) 61 seats (loss of 59 seats). Minor parties won the remainder of the seats, including some smaller parties of the right. The populist / nationalist Reconquest Party won nearly a million votes in the first round, but did not have a single candidate advance to the second round.
Looking at individual parties in parliament, the National Rally with 89 seats will be the second largest party, with Macron's En Marche, the largest at 168. Third largest will be far left La France Insoumise at 72 seats and Les Republicains fourth at 61 seats. Within Macron's "Ensemble" bloc, all of the losses were from his own En Marche. Where his two partner parties were the local candidate of Ensemble, they actually made slight gains, particularly Horizons, the pro-Macron party farthest to the right in his coalition.
Three parties backing Macron all ran on the same ballot line with an agreement on which party got which seats, and four left wing parties did the same. They each got about 5.8 million votes in the first round. The four major parties of the right all ran separately and together got around 8 million votes, but because they were fragmented among four parties, they got less second round slots. Since only 5 of the 577 seats were won outright in the first round, those second round slots were critical and the right overall got fewer of them due to the parties running separately instead of on one list like the two other major political forces.
research study conducted by Turku University
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