A Little Chaos in the 11th Congressional District | Beaufort County Now | Some numbers on the attempt by progressives to defeat Madison Cawthorn in the Republican primary

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
    Publisher's Note: This post appears here courtesy of the John Locke Foundation. The author of this post is Dr. Andy Jackson.

    Rep. Madison Cawthorn appears to be facing a serious challenge in the 11th District Republican primary for several reasons that are outside the scope of this post.

    Those efforts are getting a boost from progressives who are urging Democrats to change their registration to unaffiliated in order to vote against him in the primary. Cawthorn's Democratic opponent in the 2020 general election, Mo Davis, is supporting that effort.

    (Such attempts at crossover primary voting are nothing new. Perhaps the most famous was "Operation Chaos," when radio host Rush Limbaugh encouraged Republicans to vote in the 2008 Democratic primaries once Sen. John McCain secured the Republican presidential nomination. Limbaugh's goal was to weaken the eventual Democratic nominee. It did not work; Barack Obama went on to win the general election.)

    So, are Democrats following Davis' lead and changing registrations to unaffiliated, or even Republican? To find out, I looked at the North Carolina State Board of Elections' party change file for 2022 (which currently covers January through March).

    First, let's see how many Democrats have changed to unaffiliated or Republican. For a frame of reference, I will also show how many Republicans have changed to unaffiliated or Democratic. Here are the statewide changes:

  • Dem to Una: 8,403
  • Dem to Rep: 2,694
  • Rep to Una: 5,622
  • Rep to Dem: 836

    Now let's look at just Democrats the counties in the 11th District. (Only half of Rutherford County is in the 11th, so I will only attribute half of the changes in that county to the 11th.) The first number is how many Democrats changed to Republican or unaffiliated in the 11th District. That is followed by how many we should expect if Democrats in the 11th District were changing parties at the same rate as in North Carolina's other congressional districts. Subtracting the second number from the first will give us an idea of how many "extra" voters changed from Democratic in the 11th District (the third number):

  • 11th district switch from Dem to Rep or Una: 1,646
  • Average switch from Dem to Rep or Una in the other congressional districts: 727
  • Number of "extra" switch from Dem to Rep or Una in the 11th District: 919

    So, a little over 900 more voters switched from Democrat to a registration that would allow them to vote in the 11th District Republican primary than we would expect if the 11th district had party-switching at the same rate as the rest of the state.

    You cannot change party affiliation with same-day registration during early voting for a primary, so there will be no more party-switching ahead of the primary once regular registration closes on April 22. By then the number of "extra" party-switcher eligible to vote in the 11th District Republican primary will likely be over 1,000 (including changes between April 1 and April 22).

    Would 1,000 more votes against Cawthorn be enough to cost him the nomination? How about 2,000 (if we assume that a similar number of progressive unaffiliated voters vote in the Republican primary)?

    Probably not.

    90,696 people voted in the Republican primary in 2020. Even if there is some drop-off in turnout from 2020, 2,000 more votes against Cawthorn would only make a difference if both the race is close and most of those crossover votes go to his main challenger. The odds of both of those things happening is low.
Go Back

HbAD0

Latest Op-Ed & Politics

Democrat President Joe Biden was mocked over the weekend for bragging about flying 70,000 pounds of baby formula from Europe to the U.S. as his administration has faced criticism for the shortage of baby formula across the country.
The US dollar is losing value as a result of burgeoning Biden-flation. Before we all end up homeless, let's take some time to reflect on some things that are more valuable than the money in your bank account. Maybe you can barter for some of these killer items before it's too late!
San Francisco Democrat Mayor London Breed appears to have reversed course on her support for defunding the police, a far-left movement that is well outside the mainstream, and is now calling those same progressive policies “the bulls*** that has destroyed our city.”
On Tuesday night, Val Applewhite won the Democrat primary for North Carolina’s 19th state Senate District with 56.3% of the vote. Incumbent state Sen. Kirk deViere came in second with 36.8% of the vote.
Now that the body of a man shot in the head has been discovered in the receding waters of drought-ravaged Lake Mead in Nevada, two Mafia experts speculate he could be one of three men connected to the Mafia who mysteriously disappeared.
At a donor event this week, President Biden tried his hand at focus group-tested insults, calling Trump the "Great MAGA King" to mixed reviews.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki faced intense questions on Tuesday over a variety of issues facing the administration as it battles low approval ratings from the American public.
Now that President Biden has attempted to palliate the American public during the gas price crisis by raiding the critical Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), it has reached the lowest level in 35 years.

HbAD1

Authorities discovered an incapacitated father Thursday night while following up on reports of a possible domestic disturbance.
On Tuesday, President Joe Biden downplayed concerns that many Americans have about his vaccine mandates going too far and encroaching on their individual freedoms.
Christian Castelli has won the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 6th U.S. Congressional District with 36% of the vote.
Ted Budd Increases Lead Over Biden/Beasley in Latest Independent Poll
A new report reveals that the Democrat Party’s internal polling shows them getting blown out in November’s congressional elections.
The husband of one of Democrat President Joe Biden’s cabinet secretaries is a top executive in an artificial intelligence company that is backed by China’s communist government.
After the spectacular crash in the cryptocurrency market this week, Matt Damon and his publicists worked overtime to produce a new commercial to apologize for convincing amateurs to invest in cryptocurrency.
In what is being called an “equal pay” agreement between the U.S. Soccer Federation and the U.S. men’s and women’s national teams, the men’s team will soon begin subsidizing the women’s team’s bonuses with their own international prize money.

HbAD2

 
Back to Top